A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
